ANALYTICS | CASE STUDY

Predictive Policing Success for Manchester PD

COMPANY OVERVIEW


Manchester is located in southern New Hampshire and has a population of approximately 111,196 residents. The city had a high crime rate due to the heroin crisis they were facing and the Police Chief wanted to find a way to reduce the amount of crime that takes place.

BUSINESS NEED


Manchester PD was looking for a solution to help them understand where and when incidents occur, improve crime prevention by better understanding the drivers of the incident and improving forecasting for future events, and receive hands-on mentorship to make crime analysts self-sufficient with modeling technology. The ultimate goal being to reduce crime throughout the city.

SOLUTION


Predictive analytics strategies and technologies can make a huge difference in crime prevention and public safety efforts, improving people’s well being in communities of all sizes. The Manchester Police Department wanted to make this kind of impact in their city, and chose to bring in Ironside’s Data Science team to implement Ironside’s Predictive Policing platform to achieve their crime reduction goals.


Define the Plan


  • Implement an SPSS modeler that would complement their fledgling hot spot policing system

  • Develop predictive models

  • Mentor the department’s crime analysts throughout the process so they would be fully enabled on the product and with the assets created


Design the Model


  • Worked with the department’s internal resources to design a model matching the project’s goals

  • Provided instruction focused on the formal methodologies for data science and the data preparation, modeling, evaluation, and deployment activities needed to meet those standards

  • Equipped the police department to run the predictive hot spots module, test hypotheses, and design further crime reduction strategies


Develop the Model


  • Developed the model based on well-established theories on criminal behavior that have long been cornerstones of the law enforcement community

  • Provided the intelligence necessary to put officers in key positions during the times when they can have the most impact in order to stop crimes in progress and prevent/discourage them from happening entirely


Generate Impactful Results


  • Yielded geographically relevant forecasts that give officers the jump on crime and allow them to target precise areas of their jurisdiction

  • Crime analysts on the force are diving into new possibilities with SPSS Modeler, generating hypotheses and driving toward further crime prevention models


KEYS TO SUCCESS


Ironside’s Predictive Policing model allowed Manchester PD to see significant benefits, including:

  • Provided forecasts for each 8-hour officer shift, allowing appropriate resource allocation and daily updates to the hot spot maps so that forecasts are continually accurate to 7 days out

  • Set up workflows for pushing hot spot maps out to the mobile data terminals (MDTs) in Manchester PD cruisers so officers can see where hot spots are predicted on the go in near real-time

  • Created 60% crime prediction accuracy within a 500-foot radius of where the crime was forecast to occur

  • Produced a total crime reduction impact of 28% within the first 5 weeks of deployment

  • Reduced crime to 24% for robberies, 13% for burglaries, and 34% for thefts from motor vehicles within the first 10 weeks of deployment

“Initially, what the Manchester Police Department did was use the information that we had to try to figure out where to put our personnel to prevent crimes. Over a 3-month period, we did this and saw amazing results when it came to armed robberies of corner stores. It was actually the springboard into ‘there’s got to be more that we can even do with this.’ If we can do it on an elementary level, imagine what we could do on a level where we actually have algorithms and a system to feed all of our information in to get out the best places to put our people.”

“The technology is extremely easy. We’ve all had laptops in our cruisers for years now. It’s not new technology, it’s just another window that we’re opening up. It’s a map of the city that we’re all familiar with. I’ve had people from neighborhoods where their cars have all been broken into come out and thank me at 2:00 AM because they see the cruiser driving around and they’re saying it’s an absolute deterrent. They’re saying that their cars haven’t been broken into in weeks, so you’ve got that immediate effect that it’s there.”

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